Foreign Exchange: Significant Appreciation of the Renminbi This week, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the renminbi depreciated from around 7.2 to 7.14. The primary reason is the global perception that the US dollar interest rate has peaked,…
United States This week, the U.S. October Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a 3.2% increase, down 0.5 percentage points from a 3.7% year-on-year increase in September, exceeding market expectations. Following the release of the U.S. CPI data, the probability of…
Our Mistake In this round, we erroneously judged the trend of global asset prices, with incorrect assessments of the U.S. Dollar Index and the ten-year Treasury yield being the primary factors. Earlier, we believed that the yield on the U.S.…
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Meeting On November 2nd, American time, the Federal Reserve held an interest rate meeting and decided to continue the pause in rate hikes. This was the second pause since September; during this period, the overall inflation…
The US Q3 GDP showed a year-on-year growth rate of 4.9%, exceeding the market’s expectation of 4.5%. Although it only surpassed the forecast by 0.4 percentage points, the market had significantly underestimated the economic expansion rate during the third quarter,…
The GDP for the third quarter grew by 4.9% year-on-year, accumulating to 5.2% year-on-year. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, if the fourth quarter reaches 4.4%, the annual target of 5% can be achieved. Last year’s fourth quarter was…
United States CPI (Consumer Price Index) In September, the US CPI rose by 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%. The core CPI rebounded, increasing by 4.1% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 4.3%, both in line with expectations. Rent…
Gold, US Dollar, Oil During the holidays, the Chinese market is closed. Excluding China, the global capital market continues to trade. Both crude oil and gold have shown a declining trend, and the decline is quite significant. The price of…
Federal Reserve This week, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting sent out two signals: pausing the rate hike for September, but not ruling out the possibility of continuing to raise rates this year. The market sees this as a hawkish…
The Triangular Relationship among the US Dollar Index, Gold, and Oil Since August 23, oil prices have risen sharply from $79 per barrel to $91 per barrel on September 15. The rapid rise in oil prices is primarily due to…
