Since last Tuesday, global capital markets have experienced significant pullbacks, starting with the U.S. stock market. The Nasdaq nearly erased all gains made since Trump took office. Influenced by the downturn in the U.S. stock market, Asia-Pacific, European markets, and…
1.”Catching Up” Is More Accurate Than “East Rises, West Declines” Prior to the Lunar New Year, we highlighted the potential for a revaluation of the Hang Seng Index, driven by the view that markets overestimated tensions in U.S.-China relations under…
Since our recommendation to buckle up and prepare for market shocks, global stock, forex, and bond markets have all undergone significant adjustments. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, as a representative example, surged by 125 basis points at its peak, marking…
Wishing everyone a Happy New Year in advance! In the tumultuous market environment of 2024, our global asset allocation strategy, viewed from a macro perspective, has yielded satisfactory results. The value of learning and reference has surpassed the absolute return…
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve held its policy meeting, cutting interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. Being a quarterly meeting, the Fed also released its projections for future economic growth, inflation, and policy rates. Notably, Fed Chair Jerome…
Central Economic Work Conference The overall policy tone has shifted, prioritizing domestic demand, which diverges from the Third Plenum’s emphasis on establishing a modern industrial system. This indicates that policies are not only focused on long-term strategic transformation but also…
Our full-year GDP growth forecast for 2025 is 4.6%, primarily based on the economic trends observed in the third quarter of 2024. By the end of Q2 2024, cumulative year-on-year GDP growth reached 5%. However, starting in Q3, monetary policy…
Trump’s Victory in the U.S. Election Sparks Market Shift Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election has shifted market focus to his core political agenda—tariffs, manufacturing, real estate, cryptocurrencies, and more. These sectors have outperformed the broader market over…
As of mid-November 2024, following the September 26 policy meeting, a comprehensive set of incremental measures has been introduced. Achieving the full-year target of 5% economic growth by the fourth quarter now seems highly probable. Reflecting on the year as…
China’s National People’s Congress approved an increase in local government debt limits by 6 trillion yuan, to be distributed in three phases for the replacement of existing implicit debt. Starting in 2024, an additional 800 billion yuan annually will be…
