This week, global markets experienced a rollercoaster ride, sparked by last Friday’s increase in the U.S. unemployment rate to 4.3%, which triggered the Sahm Rule and led to significant turbulence in global financial markets. Signs of this volatility were already evident…
Last week was a major week for macroeconomic data, starting with the Federal Reserve’s meeting decisions. The meeting summary saw some changes in the wording: significant progress on inflation, relatively moderate employment, and maintaining the current interest rate levels. The…
Super Central Bank Week: Global Monetary Policy Enters a New Phase On the evening of August 2, the U.S. non-farm payrolls data showed a sharper-than-expected decline, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3%, setting the tone for global capital…
In our shared professional experience, we have been involved in applying deep learning to economic research, fortunate to be among the first in the country to explore this combination. Since the rise of ChatGPT in 2022, the core position of…
Last week’s market volatility was primarily driven by non-macro factors in what can be termed a “macro-light week.” The first factor was Trump’s survival after being shot, and the second was the US imposing further sanctions on China’s semiconductor industry.…
On July 18, the four-day Third Plenary Session concluded. Overall, the disclosed information did not exceed our expectations and did not provide direct answers to the challenges facing current economic development. Although the documents from the Third Plenary Session primarily…
Last Week’s Macroeconomic Data and Market Response Last week’s macroeconomic data provided broad support for equity markets. The U.S. June CPI further declined, hitting the lowest month-over-month rate since 2021. Following the data release, the Nasdaq and other equity markets…
Last week, global capital markets experienced high volatility. The dollar index and Treasury yields fluctuated downward, while equity assets saw upward volatility. However, the performance within equity assets varied significantly. Specifically, U.S. stocks, particularly the Nasdaq, continued to rise, reaching…
This week, U.S. macroeconomic data suggests the economy is steering towards a soft landing, although there are clear signs of cooling. Growth in durable goods consumption is slowing, with core durable goods consumption already in negative growth. Unemployment benefit claims…
The “A Brief History of Chinese Business Cycles：1978-2023” has been published for three months. A senior figure who has consistently supported us called after reading it and asked many questions about reforms, with the most important being: “What is your…
