I. Market Context and Macro Backdrop Multiple indicators suggest the Federal Reserve is highly likely to cut rates in September, raising the question: How should investors position for it? In last week’s report, we noted that U.S. equities had entered…
Over the past two weeks, both U.S. and Chinese equity markets have enjoyed a brief bull run, with benchmark indices climbing more than 4%. In the U.S., this rally was underpinned by a series of positive developments—including the passage of…
Development Trajectory The emergence of stablecoins has not been an overnight phenomenon. Since Satoshi Nakamoto proposed a peer-to-peer monetary system in 2008, the digital currency market, represented by Bitcoin (BTC), has evolved from a phase of unregulated wild growth to…
I. China: Q2 Growth Slows, External Trade Remains Key Driver China’s Q2 GDP grew 5.2% year-over-year, but momentum weakened notably in June, with both consumption and investment showing signs of softening. In particular, catering services grew only 0.9% YoY in…
This week witnessed a major shift in both domestic and international policy landscapes. I. U.S. Policy: Trumponomics 2.0 Taking Shape The economic doctrine of the current Trump administration is becoming increasingly clear: Tax cuts at home, tariffs abroad, lower interest…
Since mid-June, we have liquidated all global assets except gold. Global capital markets have undergone a pivotal shift this month. Non-dollar equity markets—particularly in Europe—have experienced a valuation correction, while U.S. markets have remained relatively stable. Oil prices have surged…
There are various approaches to studying the progress of China’s financial reform. Some studies focus on changes in China’s social financing data to illustrate the process of financial market liberalization. Others examine the relationship between M2 and GDP to analyze…
Since last week, we have observed a persistent rise in U.S. and Japanese government bond yields, alongside a noticeable loss of upward momentum in both the Nasdaq and Nikkei indices. In response, we have fully exited our positions in U.S.…
Since our last report a month ago, global capital markets have undergone dramatic changes. The Nasdaq and Dow Jones indices have surged sharply, U.S. Treasury yields have trended higher amid volatility, gold spiked before retreating, and crude oil prices have…
The newly announced tariffs have significantly exceeded market expectations. Based on prior assessments, markets generally estimated tariff levels by correlating trade imbalances with tariff intensity. However, the current measures reveal no consistent standard and are filled with aggressive and threatening…
