
Author: Weihan Luo, Zhen Zhang
About this book
Preface
Each young individual holds a unique perspective on the future world, and these expectations shape every major decision in their lives—from career choices and marriage to homeownership and car purchases. While no one can accurately predict the future, what drives generation after generation of young people to remain ambitious and embrace uncertainty? What led Japanese youth to rapidly lose their aspirations in the 1990s? And what burdened post-World War II American youth with the reputation of the “Beat Generation”?
A wealth of economic and financial literature, such as The Lost Thirty Years: The Economic History of Heisei Japan, The Great Depression, and Glory and Dream: A Narrative History of America 1932–1972, attempts to explain young people’s behavior from an academic perspective. However, in reality, cultural creators—such as Kenzaburō Ōe, Haruki Murakami, Jack Kerouac, Neal Cassady, and Robert Mapplethorpe—have often provided more nuanced interpretations of societal issues and the choices young people make.
It is worth noting that artistic expressions have varied significantly across different eras, from Leonardo da Vinci to Claude Monet, and later to Eduardo Paolozzi and Richard Hamilton. In the United States, the reggae culture shaped by Bob Marley’s philosophy of personal freedom contrasted sharply with the psychedelic hues of the New Wave rock movement led by artists like Patti Smith. During the same period, India was still grappling with basic subsistence issues, while the Middle East was fragmented by conflicts over oil revenue distribution, leaving young people to entrust their future to divine providence, consumed by daily survival concerns amid overwhelming uncertainty.
In post-liberation China, the literary works of Wang Xiaobo depicted a spirit of freedom and spontaneity, while Yu Hua’s narratives reflected hardship and struggle. Yet, on the whole, young people did not abandon the path of working to achieve prosperity; they did not resign themselves to relying on divine intervention for favorable conditions. Despite the challenges of uneven development, the aspiration for a better life has fueled the determination of generations of Chinese youth to strive forward. Across different cultures and economic cycles, young people’s expectations for the future are shaped by distinct historical and social contexts.
The Confucian ideal of a unified family and nation has undoubtedly shaped the aspirations of modern Chinese youth. From the pursuit of education to active participation in society, a strong sense of national identity is deeply embedded in their journey. As China’s reform and opening-up continue to deepen, the country’s latecomer advantage is gradually diminishing, with more industries and products now standing at the global forefront. The unknown future evokes both anxiety and excitement. The traditional philosophy of taoguang yanghui (hiding one’s strengths and biding time) must now evolve into a more proactive and engaged role in global governance, with China’s vision for civilization’s future becoming a core principle of its international strategy.
In the West, many pioneering companies have been founded by mavericks who challenged the traditional system—dropping out of school to build a revolutionary business is a common phenomenon. However, such paths are relatively rare within the Confucian cultural sphere, where formal education remains a dominant factor in career success. As China looks toward the future, one of the most critical questions in shaping civilization’s trajectory will be how to unleash and cultivate a uniquely Chinese spirit of innovation.
When we attempt to answer what determines young people’s expectations, our accumulated knowledge often feels inadequate in the face of this vast question. With humility, we first completed the writing of Reflections and Explorations on Issues Related to Economic Globalization, aiming to study global economic trends by examining the development trajectories of major economies.
Later, influenced by Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century and Matthew Desmond’s Evicted, we explored the impact of wealth inequality on young people’s choices, leading to the completion of our second book, Research on Currency Stability, Inequality, and Business Cycles. To further understand the uniqueness of China’s economic development, we then analyzed the nation’s reform and opening-up journey, culminating in our third book, A Brief History of Chinese Business Cycles : 1978-2023.
After completing these three books, we sought a universal path for long-term global economic growth. In our final work, The Philosophy and principle of Inclusive Growth, we examined five cultural and economic systems—China, Japan, the United States, India, and Saudi Arabia—based on our firsthand experiences. However, as we delved deeper into the economic and cultural landscapes of different nations, we realized that no universal development model exists. Respecting each civilization means acknowledging that its development trajectory cannot be altered simply by changing its values. The future of civilization is built upon historical foundations, inheriting the legacies of the past—much like how different regions and cultures have produced distinct artistic styles throughout history.
Every individual has their own timeline, just as every family and every economy does. While they influence one another—especially in today’s highly globalized world—they remain relatively independent. This is a force driven by history, much like the “last samurai” in the Meiji Restoration. So-called “ideologies” are often merely extensions of national interests. The United States, for instance, promotes free-market reforms abroad while simultaneously maintaining domestic protectionism.
If there is an ideology that allows young people to accumulate wealth through hard work and achieve the life they aspire to—one that ensures stability and prosperity—then it is modern and people-centered. Over the past few decades, the world has frequently criticized Saudi Arabia’s religious conservatism for allegedly infringing on human rights, particularly women’s rights. Yet, during our time living in Saudi Arabia, we found that reality was far more complex—the unity fostered by religion had dismantled much of the so-called “fake news.” When an Indian farmer says, “We now have enough food,” we recognize that an unnamed ideology—one rooted in genuine human well-being—must be taking shape. After all, we deeply understand the hardships China has endured since gaining independence, making us acutely aware of the true value of progress.
In this book, we begin with the modern history of the world, starting from the pioneering thoughts of Karl Marx and Max Weber. We focus on five representative economies: China and Japan as exemplars of Confucian civilization, the United States as a representative of Western civilization, Saudi Arabia as a representative of Islamic civilization, and India as a symbol of emerging economic development. We systematically examine the process of modernization from five angles: culture, economic growth, taxation systems, monetary frameworks, and corporate governance, attempting to answer the diverse nature of inclusive growth.
All the evidence points to the conclusion that there is no single, deterministic path for the development of an economy. For the individual, there are two potential ways to contribute to the progress of civilization: by joining a large organization to drive societal advancement, or by striving to create a company on their own. Both spirits are invaluable on the path to inclusive growth, with action being the key. In today’s China, the second spirit—entrepreneurial independence—appears to be rarer. We hope to practice this spirit in the future.
At the same time, we believe that in modern corporate governance, a company’s products and its values must be unified as one.
Let us consider some significant questions: What is the future of civilization? Currently, most regions in the world have established stable nations. Although there are differences in national systems, they do not interfere with the relations between nations and their goods. As the world continues to develop, the models of development adopted by modernized nations will also be diverse.
Man is the sum of all social relations. From the paths of modernization across different countries, we can see that the formation of laws in some regions preceded the emergence of the state, while in others, it came after the formation of state structures. The organization of society is a response to the natural and social environments of uncertainty. It is impossible for social organization to wait until a perfect legal system is established before developing, nor can a law foresee the future. Thus, civilization becomes the initial driving force for the development of social organization, propelling the establishment of states and the process of modernization. To fundamentally change the organizational form of a civilization may require a complete overhaul of the collective societal mindset.
We have titled this book The Future of Civilization because we believe successful modernization should provide every individual with the opportunity to achieve a decent life through labor. This pursuit is a common value across the major civilizations of the world. From the current trajectory of global development, markets are an extremely efficient way of organizing commodity relations. However, the concept of the market is complex—it not only involves exchange and production but also communication, wealth systems, and other layers.
Successful modernization effectively coordinates the relationship between social forms of civilization and the market. Yet, many civilizations still fall short in recognizing the market’s characteristics, with a significant portion of their populations remaining below the poverty line. To merge traditional forms of civilized society with market relations, the diverse practices of modernized nations provide a rich reference for this path.
In the early stages of industrialization, Western nations achieved industrial development through bond financing and labor immigration, in order to fund large-scale infrastructure projects such as railroads and energy systems that required significant investment and long-term returns. Modern small nations no longer have the conditions for success on this path, but the establishment of national companies, with state investment in industrial infrastructure, has provided a feasible route for modernization. This requires civilization and the state to demonstrate full inclusivity and actively drive their own civilizational forms to adapt to the demands of modern development.
The four books began in October 2021 and were completed by early May 2024. These research projects consumed a great deal of energy. Although they did not fully meet the initial expectations, they serve as a record of our pursuit of the questions that have long preoccupied us. Like works of art, these books are a form of documentation and a way of communicating with others. We hope that the works will be appreciated and, more importantly, that they will inspire young people to strive for their ideals and explore the answers within their hearts.
Lastly, we would like to express our gratitude to several mentors who provided invaluable guidance: Liu Shijin, Zhu Xiaohuang, Xia Chun, Han Song, as well as those who assisted with these four books—Yang Xinran, Wang Jiahui, He Dejie, Wu Yingqian, Liu Zhen, Yu Lishan, Lokesh Garg, and Ahmed Albluwi. A special thanks is due to our two editors who supported us throughout this journey, Wang Xueke and Wang Guangyan.
About Author
Director
Co-Founder of Inclusive Growth
Co-Founder of One Diem
Chief Economist
Co-Founder of Inclusive Growth